Asia Investors the New Bagholders in Bitcoin Mining?
Payback math shows rigs may only break even by early 2028 — just ahead of the next halving
Bitmain is finding a new class of buyers in Hong Kong, just as U.S. institutions slow their appetite for fresh capacity. Two public companies listed in Hong Kong — DL Holdings and International Business Settlement Holdings (IBS) — have signed deals in recent weeks to absorb nearly 1.7 EH/s of the Antminer S21 rigs, underscoring how Asia investors are stepping in to fill the demand gap. But their scale raises the question: are they big enough to survive the squeeze?
DL Holdings, a $700 million family office and wealth manager, late last month agreed to purchase 2,200 Antminer S21XP Hydros totaling 1.04 EH/s, with the machines already racked in the U.S. and likely to be hosted at Bitmain-operated sites. The purchase price of $21.5/TH/s mirrors the level Bitmain advertises on its website, and the same rate that Cipher and IREN locked in when they placed bulk preorders at the start of 2025. The key difference: when Cipher and IREN committed capital, bitcoin’s hashprice was around $60/PH/s. Today, despite bitcoin’s rally back to $118,000, hashprice hovers just above $50/PH/s as the network hashrate keeps climbing. DL is paying the same sticker price, but for less revenue potential.
The financial structure also reflects Bitmain’s web of relationships. DL is settling the deal with convertible bonds and shares, with Chiu Chang-Wei — a director at Antalpha and Antpool — listed as the counterparty. That ties the purchase directly into the broader Bitmain–Antalpha financing ecosystem. On economics, DL’s breakeven hashprice is estimated at $24.3/PH/s if hosting costs land near the ~$0.075–0.08/kWh range that peers such as Cango pay to Bitmain, according to TheMinerMag’s analysis. At a capital cost of $21.5/TH/s, the static payback period currently is about 830 days, landing on January 10, 2028 — only three months before the next halving cuts block rewards in half.
IB Settlement, an $800 million Hong Kong property developer diversifying into “supercomputing” and managed hosting, has inked a separate agreement to buy 1,863 S21 Hydro units rated at 660 PH/s in September. The purchase price comes to US$10.88 million, or about $16/TH/s. The company expects to settle the transaction with a Bitcoin pledge, redeemable in cash 12 months after shipment, and has entered into managed hosting agreements with Bitmain to place the rigs in the U.S. and Paraguay. Assuming the same ~$0.075/kWh hosting rate, IBS’s rigs — with an efficiency of 15 J/TH — would stop generating gross profit if hashprice drops below $27/PH/s. Its static payback period is about 700 days, which projects to September 2027, seven months ahead of the 2028 halving.
Put together, these deals paint a clear picture: as U.S. institutional miners pull back, Hong Kong investors are stepping in, wiring cash (or pledging Bitcoin) to absorb Bitmain’s ready-to-rack stock. The question isn’t whether the rigs will be turned on — they’re already sitting in U.S. facilities — but whether these buyers can make their money back before the next halving (and the next bear market?) resets the economics.
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